Thyroid Cancer Incidence in North-East Spain, 2002-2021: A Population-Based Study.
Ayala-Conte Maria M, Basté Neus N, Trallero Jan J, Sanvisens Arantza A et al.
Background/Objectives: The incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) has increased worldwide over recent decades, particularly for well-differentiated histological subtypes, a trend largely attributed to overdiagnosis. Given potential geographical differences, this study analyzed TC incidence and temporal trends in the province of Girona, Spain, between 2002 and 2021. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study using data from the Girona Cancer Registry. Crude incidence rates (CRs), age-standardized incidence rates using the 2013 European (ASRe) and the 1960 World (ASRw) standard populations were calculated per 100,000 person-years. Temporal trends were assessed via the annual percentage change (APC) using generalized linear models. Results: A total of 998 incident TC cases were identified. Most patients were women (78.0%), with a median age at diagnosis of 48 years. Papillary TC was the predominant histological subtype (81.7%), and 70.6% of cases were diagnosed at Stage I. The overall ASRe was 6.8 and ASRw was 5.5, with incidence rates 3-4 times higher in women than in men. Overall, TC incidence increased significantly (APC: 2.7%), driven by increases in the 35-44 and ≥55 age groups, papillary histology, and early-stage disease (Stages I-II). Conclusions: The rise in TC incidence in Girona over the last two decades has been largely driven by Stage I papillary tumors, in both sexes, supporting a potentially substantial contribution of overdiagnosis. However, the concurrent increase in Stage II disease warrants continued surveillance, as it may reflect additional risk factors.