AstraZeneca in Talks with Summit Therapeutics for $15B Ivonescimab Deal

AstraZeneca is reportedly in discussions with Summit Therapeutics regarding a potential licensing deal for ivonescimab, Summit's promising PD-1xVEGF bispecific antibody. The deal, which could be worth up to $15 billion, highlights the growing interest in this emerging class of cancer therapeutics and signals a potential shift in the competitive landscape of immuno-oncology.

Deal Structure and Investor Expectations

According to sources familiar with the matter, the proposed deal could include a multibillion-dollar upfront payment along with several performance-based milestones. However, analysts at Leerink Partners suggest that to truly excite investors, Summit would need to secure at least $7.7 billion in upfront cash, combined with $10 billion in biobucks.

The Leerink team, led by Daina Graybosch, Ph.D., arrived at this figure by benchmarking investor expectations against ivonescimab's first-in-class status and comparing it to Bristol Myers Squibb's recent $11 billion partnership with BioNTech for their PD-L1xVEGF bispecific, BNT327. In that deal, BMS agreed to pay BioNTech $1.5 billion upfront and $2 billion in unconditional anniversary payments through 2028 for a 50-50 profit-sharing arrangement.

Despite the optimistic projections, Leerink analysts express doubt that any Big Pharma company would be willing to commit to such a substantial upfront payment, particularly given the abundance of potentially cheaper PD-(L)1xVEGF assets being developed in China.

Clinical Progress and Competitive Landscape

Ivonescimab has shown promising results in its clinical development. In May, Summit reported that the drug significantly reduced the risk of progression or death in patients with previously treated EGFR-mutated nonsquamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in its first global phase 3 readout. However, data on overall survival did not reach statistical significance at that point, leading Summit to reconsider the timing of a potential FDA filing.

The company is currently conducting the high-risk phase 3 HARMONi-3 trial, which pits ivonescimab against Merck's Keytruda in their respective chemo combinations for first-line NSCLC. This trial represents a significant gamble for Summit, as it directly challenges the current standard of care in a broad patient population.

Summit's pursuit of a Big Pharma partnership comes amid growing competition in the PD-(L)1xVEGF space. Several major pharmaceutical companies, including Merck & Co., Bristol Myers Squibb, and Pfizer, have already acquired or partnered on similar assets. This has led to concerns among Summit investors that the biotech might struggle to compete effectively without the resources to expand ivonescimab's clinical program aggressively.

Strategic Implications for AstraZeneca

For AstraZeneca, acquiring ivonescimab could bolster its already strong position in oncology. The British pharmaceutical giant has established itself as a leading player in the field, with a large internal pipeline that could offer significant combination potential for ivonescimab.

However, some analysts, including those at Leerink, express surprise at AstraZeneca's reported interest in the PD-(L)1xVEGF space. The company has already invested heavily in other bispecific antibodies targeting the PD-(L)1 checkpoint axis, including the PD-1xCTLA-4 agent volrustomig and the PD-1xTIGIT drug rilvegostomig. These existing assets are being positioned as potential backbones for combination therapies, potentially conflicting with the role ivonescimab might play in AstraZeneca's portfolio.

As negotiations continue, the pharmaceutical industry watches closely to see how this potential deal might reshape the competitive landscape in immuno-oncology and what it could mean for the future of cancer treatment.