Gilead's Yeztugo Set to Revolutionize HIV Prevention Market

Gilead Sciences' newly FDA-approved HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) injection, Yeztugo, is poised to make significant waves in the HIV prevention landscape. Approved last week, this long-acting capsid inhibitor is expected to swiftly gain traction among patients and healthcare providers alike, potentially reshaping the market dynamics of HIV prophylaxis.

Rapid Adoption Anticipated

According to insights shared by an HIV physician with Mizuho Securities analysts, the uptake of Yeztugo is projected to be swift and substantial. The doctor anticipates that a majority of her 125 PrEP patients will transition to Yeztugo within the next 12 months. This enthusiasm is attributed to several factors:

• Yeztugo's dosing schedule of once every six months
• A remarkable 99% efficacy rate in preventing HIV infection
• Patients' eagerness to try the new treatment option

The physician noted that interest has already surged following the FDA approval, with many patients "anxiously awaiting" the opportunity to start Yeztugo.

Market Implications and Competitive Landscape

The introduction of Yeztugo is expected to significantly impact the current PrEP market, which is dominated by Gilead's own daily oral medication Descovy and GSK's bi-monthly injection Apretude. The HIV specialist provided a breakdown of her current patient distribution:

• 45-50% use Gilead's Descovy (daily oral)
• Approximately 33% use GSK's Apretude (bi-monthly injection)
• The remainder use Gilead's older daily pill Truvada or its generic versions

The doctor anticipates that the "vast majority" of her Apretude users will switch to Yeztugo, along with a "majority" of those currently on daily pills. This shift is partly due to the reduced frequency of clinic visits required for Yeztugo compared to Apretude, addressing a key inconvenience factor for patients.

Financial Projections and Market Potential

While most Wall Street analysts project Yeztugo's peak annual sales between $4 billion and $5 billion, Mizuho Securities has taken a more bullish stance with an $8 billion peak sales forecast. This optimistic outlook is supported by the anticipated rapid adoption and the potential for Yeztugo to expand the overall PrEP market.

For context, Gilead's Descovy generated $2.1 billion in sales last year, while GSK's Apretude reported sales of £279 million (approximately $381 million), marking a 93% increase in its third full year on the market.

Addressing Unmet Needs in HIV Prevention

The approval of Yeztugo comes at a crucial time when PrEP utilization remains suboptimal. In 2022, only 36% of eligible individuals in the U.S. were using PrEP, with significant disparities among women, African Americans, and Latinos, according to a GlobalData analysis.

Key opinion leaders interviewed by GlobalData suggest that Yeztugo could help address these gaps by overcoming adherence challenges and reducing the stigma associated with daily PrEP medications. The long-acting nature of Yeztugo may prove particularly beneficial in increasing PrEP adoption among underserved populations, potentially marking a new era in HIV prevention strategies.