J&J Discontinues Depression Studies for Potential Blockbuster Drug, Impacting Broader Kappa Opioid Receptor Research

Johnson & Johnson has announced the termination of its research program for aticaprant as an add-on therapy for major depressive disorder (MDD), dealing a significant blow to the development of kappa opioid receptor antagonists in the psychiatric field. The decision has far-reaching implications for the pharmaceutical industry, particularly affecting companies like Neumora Therapeutics and potentially influencing AbbVie's ongoing research in this area.

Aticaprant's Discontinued Development and Market Impact

J&J's decision to halt the development of aticaprant for MDD comes after a series of large, late-stage clinical trials that tested the drug in adults with hard-to-treat MDD and moderate-to-severe anhedonia. Despite showing a favorable safety profile, the program demonstrated "insufficient efficacy in the target patient population," according to the company's statement.

The discontinuation of aticaprant's development for depression is a significant setback for J&J, which had previously projected the drug could generate annual sales between $1 billion and $5 billion at its peak. Wall Street analysts, including David Risinger from Leerink Partners, had more conservative estimates, projecting about $1 billion in annual sales by 2032.

Despite this setback, J&J maintains its commitment to the neuroscience space, as evidenced by its recent $15 billion acquisition of Intra-Cellular Therapies. The company still expects its medicines division to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 5% to 7%, with the division recording $57 billion in sales last year, a 4% increase from 2023.

Broader Implications for Kappa Opioid Receptor Research

The discontinuation of aticaprant's development has cast a shadow over the entire class of kappa opioid receptor antagonists being studied for depression treatment. This decision has particularly affected Neumora Therapeutics, a biotech startup working on a similar drug called navacaprant.

Neumora, which went public in 2023 after raising significant funding from venture capital firms and Amgen, experienced a sharp decline in its stock price earlier this year when a late-stage study found navacaprant to be no better than a placebo in treating moderate-to-severe MDD. The news of J&J's decision has further impacted Neumora's stock, with shares down close to 5% following the announcement.

Industry analysts, including Brian Abrahams from RBC Capital Markets and Paul Matteis from Stifel, view J&J's decision as a significant blow to the thesis surrounding kappa opioid receptor drugs. Matteis downgraded his rating on Neumora stock to "Hold," arguing that the investment case for the company has become much harder to defend.

The ripple effects of this development extend beyond J&J and Neumora. AbbVie, which acquired a kappa opioid antagonist through its Cerevel Therapeutics acquisition last year, may need to reassess its strategy for the drug currently in Phase 1 testing.

As the pharmaceutical industry continues to grapple with the challenges of developing effective treatments for depression, the setback in kappa opioid receptor research underscores the complexity of psychiatric drug development and the ongoing need for innovative approaches in addressing mental health disorders.