GSK Raises Long-Term Sales Target to £40 Billion, Driven by Blenrep Revival and Pipeline Potential

GSK, the British pharmaceutical giant, has once again increased its long-term sales forecast, now projecting revenues of over £40 billion ($50 billion) by 2031. This upward revision comes despite recent challenges in its RSV vaccine market and reflects the company's confidence in its diversified portfolio and pipeline.

Blenrep's Comeback Boosts Outlook

The revival of Blenrep, GSK's antibody-drug conjugate for multiple myeloma, plays a crucial role in the company's optimistic projection. After being withdrawn in late 2022, Blenrep has shown promise in recent Phase 3 trials for second-line treatment. GSK now estimates Blenrep's peak sales could exceed £3 billion, contributing significantly to the revised 2031 target.

CEO Emma Walmsley highlighted that 90% of the projected £40 billion in sales is expected to come from products already approved or planned for launch within the next three years. The company anticipates an FDA decision on Blenrep's second-line use by July 23, 2025, and has initiated a Phase 3 trial for first-line treatment.

Vaccines Face Headwinds

While GSK's overall outlook is positive, its vaccines business is navigating challenges. The RSV vaccine Arexvy, which had a strong market entry, saw a significant decline in Q4 2024, with sales plummeting 70% year-over-year to £158 million ($198 million). This downturn is attributed to restricted CDC recommendations, a late RSV season, and an unfavorable comparison to the previous year's launch stocking.

Similarly, the shingles vaccine Shingrix experienced a 4% sales drop at constant exchange rates, totaling £848 million ($1.06 billion) in Q4 2024. The company acknowledges short-term pressures in the Chinese market but maintains a long-term optimistic view for vaccine growth.

HIV Portfolio and Financial Strategies

GSK's HIV drug portfolio remains a strong performer, with Q4 sales reaching nearly £2 billion ($2.5 billion), representing an 11% year-over-year growth. Long-acting treatments like Cabenuva and the PrEP drug Apretude have contributed to this success.

In light of its positive outlook, GSK announced a £2 billion share buyback program to be implemented over the next 18 months. Walmsley emphasized that this move aims to provide attractive returns for shareholders while maintaining planned investments in R&D, new product launches, and targeted business development.