GSK Raises 2031 Sales Projections, Eyes Dealmaking in Cancer and Respiratory Sectors

British pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has announced a raised sales projection for 2031 and plans for continued dealmaking, particularly in oncology and respiratory indications. Despite facing challenges in its vaccine division, the company reported strong growth in specialty medicines and oncology for the fourth quarter of 2024.

Q4 2024 Financial Performance

GSK narrowly beat consensus estimates for Q4 2024, reporting a 4% year-on-year growth with revenues of £8.12 billion ($10.2 billion). The company's full-year 2024 results showed a 7% growth at constant currencies, with total turnover reaching £31.4 billion ($39 billion).

The Specialty Medicines unit drove much of the company's growth, with the HIV franchise experiencing a 13% spike in Q4, generating nearly £7.1 billion ($8.9 billion). Respiratory and immunology sales also grew by 13%, reaching almost £3.3 billion ($4.1 billion). Notably, GSK's oncology unit saw a remarkable 98% year-on-year surge, bringing in £1.4 billion ($1.8 billion) in the fourth quarter.

However, the vaccine division faced setbacks, with sales dropping 12% to £2.21 billion ($2.77 billion) in Q4. The respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine Arexvy saw a significant 69% decline to £158 million ($198 million), while the shingles vaccine Shingrix dipped 4% to £848 million ($1.06 billion).

Strategic Focus on Dealmaking

CEO Emma Walmsley emphasized that dealmaking will continue to be a core growth strategy for GSK in 2025, with a particular focus on cancer, respiratory, and inflammatory indications. Walmsley stated, "I'm absolutely delighted with the strengthening of our pipeline and the balance sheet that is allowing us ... to continue to invest in business development."

The company's recent acquisitions highlight this strategy, including:

1. The £1 billion upfront payment for IDRx, acquiring a small molecule drug candidate targeting gastrointestinal stromal tumors.
2. A £1.7 billion antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) deal with Hansoh Pharma in December 2023.

Walmsley indicated that GSK's ADC portfolio presents good dealmaking opportunities, especially with partners that complement its in-house development.

Revised 2031 Sales Outlook

Encouraged by strong performance in 2024, GSK has raised its 2031 sales outlook to £40 billion ($50.12 billion) on a risk-adjusted basis. CEO Walmsley noted, "This is £7 billion ahead of the target we set only four years ago," adding that "it would represent an increase of £17 billion to sales since the start of the decade."

As GSK continues to navigate challenges in its vaccine division and capitalize on growth in specialty medicines and oncology, the company's strategic focus on dealmaking and pipeline development appears poised to shape its future in the pharmaceutical landscape.