Novo Nordisk's Wegovy Sales Double, but Analysts Hunger for More

Novo Nordisk reported a remarkable 107% increase in Wegovy sales for the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching 19.9 billion Danish kroner ($2.77 billion). Despite this impressive growth, the figure narrowly missed analyst expectations, prompting questions about the company's ability to expand market access, particularly in the United States.

U.S. Market Expansion and Prescriptions

David Moore, Novo Nordisk's executive vice president of U.S. Operations and Global Business Development, highlighted that the total market for anti-obesity medicines in the U.S. grew by 160% in 2024. Novo Nordisk currently holds just over half of the market share in terms of total monthly prescriptions.

Wegovy prescriptions in the U.S. doubled from approximately 100,000 at the start of 2024 to 200,000 by year-end. However, with a market potential of about 55 million patients in the U.S., analysts are eager to understand what's holding back further growth.

Moore addressed this concern, stating, "Driving new prescriptions is, of course, our focus, and what we can say about that is we are shipping more of the starter doses as we speak. Now it's our opportunity to pull through this market expansion and connect more people with Wegovy in the U.S."

Global Performance and Competition

Novo Nordisk reported overall sales growth of 26% to 128.3 billion Danish kroner ($17.9 billion) in 2024. CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen noted that the company is now addressing 45 million patients across its diabetes and obesity portfolio globally, an increase of 4 million from the previous year.

Camilla Sylvest, executive vice president of Commercial Strategy & Corporate Affairs, emphasized the company's growth in the GLP-1 market: "Our ongoing scaling efforts have supported an almost tripling of GLP-1 patients reached over the last three years." Novo Nordisk now owns about two-thirds of the global market, with Eli Lilly's Zepbound for weight loss and Mounjaro for diabetes capturing the majority of the remaining third.

To support this growth, Novo Holdings acquired Catalent last year, expanding Novo Nordisk's global fill and finish footprint from 11 to 14 sites, boosting manufacturing capacity for GLP-1 products.

Future Outlook and Analyst Expectations

Despite the significant growth, analysts continue to press for more rapid expansion, particularly in the U.S. market. Novo Nordisk has not provided specific guidance for boosting supply, but CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen asserted that the company has grown faster than its competitors.

Looking ahead, Novo Nordisk expects sales to grow between 16% and 24% in 2025, with operating profit growth projected in the range of 19% to 27%. As the company continues to scale its operations and address market demand, all eyes will be on its ability to meet the seemingly insatiable appetite for weight loss medications in the coming year.