Potential Increase in ACA Premiums and Rise in Uninsured as Subsidies Set to Expire: CBO Report

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects significant increases in Affordable Care Act (ACA) premiums if the enhanced subsidies are allowed to expire after 2025. Specifically, the CBO expects gross benchmark premiums to rise by 4.3% in 2026, 7.7% in 2027, and an average of 7.9% annually through 2034[1][2]. This projected premium escalation aligns with analyses from other institutes, such as the Urban Institute, which forecasts premium increases affecting individuals across all states, particularly impacting those with incomes below 250% of the federal poverty level and costing some individuals more than $2,900 additionally each year if their income is around 400% of the federal poverty level[1][2].